Research In Motion's somewhat disappointing Q2 earnings report may be taking a back seat to Apple's new iPhone launch (maybe thankfully for RIM). The past two launches by Apple were met with not only incredible media hype, but incredibly long lines at AT&T and Apple stores worldwide. So what about today's launch of the new "3G S"? Does the "S" stand for Speedy processor or just Short wait to get one? Barrons noted in the Tech Trader Daily column that there was barely any wait at all with only 50 phones being sold: Barrons Article Reuters also reported a similar story of smaller crowds: Reuters Article Silicon Alley Insider has also posted photos of people around the world who have queued up for the new 3G S and also noted smaller lines: Silicon Alley Article Perhaps the main difference between this version and the past two introductions is that the 3G S just has a few nicer-to-have features but not necessarily enough to warrant the existing 2G and 3G user base to pitch a tent at their local AT&T store. If anything, you would think people who don't have an iPhone yet would want to wait to get the prior 3G model for the low $99 intro price. The success of the new iPhone and the new price for the old iPhone will remain to be seen. From SmarTrend's persepctive, we continue to see shares of Apple in a bullish price pattern as the 30 and 50 day moving averages continue to slope upward. After the monster move from our uptrend call on March 13th, the stock paused briefly in in early May and we resumed our uptrend call on May 27th. The downtrend call on May 13th was protective in nature as you never know when a 7% retrace can become a 40% or 50% drop like we saw late last year. Let your winners run but dont let losses mount. You can always get back in. [caption id="attachment_57" align="alignleft" width="600" caption="SmarTrend AAPL Chart"][/caption]
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[caption id="attachment_46" align="alignnone" width="588" caption="SmarTrend BDK Chart"][/caption] After an amazing run in March, SmarTrend called a Downtrend on BDK on 5/11/09 at $34.29. The prior Uptrend, called on 3/18/09 at $25.64, returned an astounding 33.7%! However, in early May, our proprietary NBDV and IBDV indicators reached overbought levels and started to trend lower, indicating that lower prices were to come. Since SmarTrend made its Downtrend call on May 11th, BDK shares have since fallen 13.7% while the S&P is actually up 1.6%. Several things are notable. BDK was approaching its 200-day moving average which it failed to attain and the 30-day moving average started to flatten out indicating that the upward momentum (more than 100% from the March 4 low) had slowed. This confluence of events all contributed to the DownTrend call. The stock initially found some support at the 50-day moving average but has since been fading on lower volume. With the major moving averages sloping down and the 30-day moving average bearishly crossing below the 50-day moving average, BDK has the potential for even lower prices in the near term.
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As we discussed in today's Morning Call, the convergence between support and resistance levels creates a lot of back and forth trading action. Not helping are the nervous nellies who are now focused on every bond auction for a reason to potentially call the rally officially over. Not so fast. Rates are still well below last year's levels and we will need more than a few ticks in bonds to derail this market.
Uptrended on 3/26 and so far still in an uptrend. Also seeing bullish cross on 50 and 200 day moving averages. Trade the trend!