SmarTrend Weekly Performance Statistics
Last week's decline in the equity markets, foreshadowed by a very toppy SmarTrend Uptrend Ratio, led to slight declines in the average return of our Uptrend universe from just over 47% to about 45%. As we stated here and in our Morning Call, stocks had reached a point where momentum had been stretched leaving fewer new Uptrending stocks to buy. Consequently, the percentage of stocks in an Uptrend ticked slightly lower from 83.3% to 83.1% - small but we will watch closely to see if it becomes a trend. Also, the percentage of Uptrends that are "in-the-money" also retreated from over 90% to just over 87%, still high but closer to our historical average. The percentage of winning Downtrend calls moved up from 40% to over 47% - an expected shift after a more than 2% decline in the S&P 500 last week. The next few weeks will be critical as we approach Q3 earnings season and with Friday's employment report expected to be a potential catalyst. Please check our Morning Call each day for the latest insight on market direction and how it may impact the performance of both Uptrends and Downtrends. Remember, in downtrending markets, our Downtrend calls outperform. However, should the market find a base from which to rally, stocks that SmarTrend has in an Uptrend are to be watched for potential entry points.
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