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Market Comments & Wrap-Ups
Morning Call Market Summary -- November 20, 2009

The S&P500 1100 level appeared too strong to resist, sending all but 31 of its components lower on Thursday, down 1.3% to 1095. The DJIA shed 94 points, or 0.9%, for a 10,332 close, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.7% for a 2157 finish. A semiconductor industry downgrade from BofA/Merrill's (NYSE:BAC) analyst, mixed economic data and general-rally-fatigue were blamed for the market's second down day. However, the interplay of weakness in riskier asset classes and strength in safe-haven asset plays suggested investors are growing less tolerant of the year's "green shoot" promises, those glimmers of demand gains not yet reflected in revenue increases.

Now lower for a second straight session, benchmark equities responded to decidedly diminished risk appetites across the asset spectrum, a phenomenon fueled as much by technical considerations, perhaps, as actual threats to global recovery prospects. Indeed, the OECD increased its growth projections for its 30-country members to 1.9% in 2010 from June's estimate of 0.7% growth, and to 2.5% GDP expansion in 2011. Nevertheless, trading volume has recently slowed to levels of only about 1 billion daily on the NYSE, suggesting both a lack of conviction in the market's ability to push much beyond the current rally's steep, 64% rise from March lows, and sidelined institutional investors eager to lock in already-impressive profits before yearend.

Investors appeared increasingly mindful of the risks of asset-bubble build-ups from central banks' accommodative monetary policies and governments' stimulus efforts worldwide, turning the recent trading volume pullbacks into a rush into safe-haven assets. A base-building buck traded at the top end of its range, up 0.2% against a basket of currencies. Crude prices dropped $1.93 to $77.46. Gold prices rose to their fifth straight record close, up 70 cents to $1141.90.

Meanwhile, short-term US interest rates turned negative for a time during yesterday's session, as banks dressed up their balance sheets for yearend viewing, stockpiling government securities. The higher prices for government securities came even as the Treasury announced plans to issue $118 billion new notes next week, an auction schedule of $44 billion 2-year notes on Monday, and record Tuesday and Wednesday auctions of $42 billion 5-years and $32 billion 7-years, respectively.

Tech shares, already up 54.3% year-to-date, fell 1.7% Thursday, after Merrill's analyst slashed 2010 global growth targets, and downgraded ten companies in the sector. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) shares plunged 4.1%, and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) dropped 3.4%. Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) shares plummeted 6.1% in premarket trading, following its earnings miss reported after yesterday's close.

The economic news was not particularly alarming, nor surprising. Jobless claims actually fared better than projected, as the four-week moving average fell to its lowest in almost a year. Weekly claims were flat, although the prior week's figure was revised upward by 3K. Mortgage delinquencies climbed to 9.64% of loans during the third quarter, as foreclosures, up 4.5%, reached 14.41%. Leading indicators were slightly lower than projected, up 0.3% in October rather than the 0.4% expected rise, but still marking the gauge's seventh monthly gain. And the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 16.7 in November from October's 11.5.

According to our analytics team, markets may continue weak under the pressure of last night's disappointing Dell results, even as stocks began to recover by the session's end from acutely oversold levels. Nevertheless, we continue to expect the rally to resume, pushing the DJIA to 10,600 as the next catalytic impetus is uncovered. For a look at the complete list of stocks changing trends recently please click on http://www.mysmartrend.com.



 



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