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Morning Call Market Summary -- November 6, 2009
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DJIA shares closed above 10,000 for the first time in two weeks; the S&P500 moved higher for the fourth consecutive session; and the NASDAQ posted its sharpest daily gain since last July. The escalation of risk appetites followed on the heels of many factors. There has been a resurgence in deal activity, which suggests executives view stocks as still offering values. Also recent economic posts provide growing proof of an economic recovery underway as numbers turn positive, not only showing moderating losses. Also optimistic is the belief that corporate profit growth may continue to offer upside surprises as well as a mounting political climate more attuned to workers' interests, hence corporations' well-being, than social mandates.

And so equities placed broad-based gains on Thursday ahead of the week's primary risk event, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. All thirty of the DJIA components marked gains, pushing the index to a finish above 10,000 as it rose 2.1% or almost 204 points to just under 1006. The S&P500 was propelled 1.9% higher to a 1066 close as all ten of its industry sectors posted gains of over 1%. The NASDAQ climbed 2.4% for a 2105 close on the heels of Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) better-than-expected quarterly numbers and improved guidance. Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) shares jumped on news of its $1.2 billion share buyback plan as well as a Standard & Poor's ratings increase to "buy" from "hold." A report on the semiconductor industry projected sales growth of 10% in 2010.

Key to the day's gains were economic releases showing the pace of firings may be leveling off, and a surge in quarterly productivity gains, likely to augur an upswing in corporate returns. The 20K drop in jobless filings to 512K was the lowest since the week of January 3, and the 68K fall in continuing claims took filings to 5.8 million, the lowest since March. The news, of course, is double-edged, indicating a drop in claims over the past nine weeks, although still holding above 500K for 51 straight weeks.

Third quarter productivity, the measure of production in terms of hours worked, jumped 9.5%, the fastest since the third quarter of 2003, topping last quarter's 6.6% gain. The increase was promising on a number of fronts, suggesting improving upcoming corporate returns as firms squeeze more profits from their trimmed workforces, executives look to bolster hirings as ranks are depleted, and inflation appears curtailed sufficiently to support accommodative Fed policies.

October retail sales data was largely mixed, however, according to Thomson Reuters' data, comparable sales rose 1.8% from a year ago, the best performance since April 2008. However, about half of reporting firms missed expectations as the growth proved selective. Costco (NASDAQ:COST) posted 3% same-store-sales gains excluding gasoline results; Gap (NYSE:GPS) marked a 4% sales increase and upped third quarter guidance. The numbers appear promising for the holiday spending's outlook as such luxury retailers as Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) showed surprising gains with its 6.5% sales increase.

On the political front, President Obama is expected to sign into law today an extension and broadening of the homebuyers' tax credits, to include both first-time buyers' credits of $8,000, and existing homeowners, in residence for over five years, of $6,500. The measure also includes an extension of unemployment benefits by up to twenty weeks as the voting populace has shown its displeasure over current jobless rates.

Therefore, this morning's jobs figure will not only trigger volatility in financial markets, but also on the Hill and within the White House as investors and voters alike looking for signs of a break in the steady rise in joblessness, instead are forced to swallow the monthly increase in unemployment to 10.2% from the expected 9.9% and up from September's 9.8% as the estimated 175K in jobs lost unexpectedly rose to 190K.

The day's docket also covers a 10:00 ET report on September wholesale inventories, expected to drop 1.0% following August's 1.3% decline. A 2:00 ET release of September consumer credit is likely to show a decline of $10.3 billion versus a decline of $12.0 billion prior.

According to our analytics team, yesterday's sharp gains may have taken us into overbought territory in which traders may chew over the implications of joblessness and thereby provide a buying opportunity amid lower entry prices before the next leg up of market rally. For a look at the list of stocks changing trends recently please click on http://www.mysmartrend.com.

 


 



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