Is the Market Rolling Over?
With the S&P now off 5% from its high of 956 on June 11, the question on everyone's mind is whether or not the rally is over. From the March 6 low, the S&P gained 44% in a relatively short amount of time and now market pros and technicians are tripping over themselves to suggest how deep this next corrective phase will be.
Mary Ann Bartels, a technical analyst at BofA/Merrill Lynch, thinks the downside will be about 7-10% from current levels. She cites failure to break above the Jan 2009 high of 944 (on a closing basis) and failure to break above the May 2009 down trendline as reasons for concern from a technical standpoint. She also points out that the 90% down day on June 15th also suggests that some "backing and filling" may be necessary before the market can move to new highs. Bartels also said that recent leading sectors such as consumer discretionary, energy, materials, and technology are showing some signs of fatigue and may correct further in coming weeks. Bartels sees a break below 875 would point to a test of secondary support at the 810-850 level.
NYSE floor trader and frequent CNBC commentator Art Cashin sees the next few days as critical as Monday's big down day "moves the momentum to the bears." Cashin said "The market will probably go [down] about 15% just to fool everybody. You get in about the 10% level and people say 'oh my god the market's going down', so you need about 15% down to make everyone feel bad." You can see a video of Art's comments here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31504070/site/14081545
With so many voices trying to talk the market down, will they be proven right or will it just be another contrary indicator?
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